Don't panic...

There's no match blog this week cos I didn't go to Millwall as I'm a lazy, good for nothing part time fan that deserves to be ejected into orbit on a one way trip to the sun. 

I thought I'd attempt to write something sort of slightly sensible instead as we're heading for two weeks of no football and a chance to draw breath and think about how we've done to date. 

Post match on Saturday, despite the performance showing more spirit than a big bottle of meths, there has been an understandable gentle gnashing of teeth. We haven't won yet (except against Middlesbrough reserves in the probably soon to be discontinued cup.) There are also clearly some issues we didn't necessarily expect with recruitment when Ben Mansford was stood outside his hotel the day after the playoffs, the egg from his celebratory English hotel breakfast smeared around his mouth, shouting "we'll get Messi, Ronaldo, Mbappe, that sort of player. Just you wait. You'll piss yourself with delight, where do I sign the super league forms?"* 

'So Neil, Firmino, Salah or the other lad. Or all three? Pass me the ketchup will you?'

*He may not have said these exact words 

Everyone knows what we need most. 

The obvious problem is the lack of right back. Until we have one of those (if for nothing else, to blame for not being a good enough right back,) then we'll continue to bemoan the lack of it. It has had an impact. I'm not Opta and I don't have a heat map or graph that looks like an exploding nebula for you to prove my thoughts, but my take is that he's played reasonably well defensively (yesterday's James Husband impression was the exception, not the rule) but he looks (understandably) a bit lost trying to skip down the flank like an actual full back might. 

That, to me, a shite blogger with no UEFA coaching certificate in a brown envelope in the loft, has left us a bit imbalanced and undermined a little bit our attempts to Brazil it out from the back. Several times I've seen us shift the other team with the sideways defensive passing and then noticed how we haven't quite had the out ball on the right as Connolly is being studiously defensive in his duties, which is fair enough because he isn't (to my mind) playing in his best position. Playing out of position is a bit like driving someone else's car - you don't take the risks you might in your own. 

It's good to have a right back. If for nothing else than to complain about him... 

The best is yet to come? 

We're rumoured to be in for a flying wing back from Chelsea, one who presumably will do the flying down the wing thing with the relish of Douglas Bader. Hopefully he'll have legs though. It would, to be fair, be a striking blow for equality if he didn't and it never stopped wor Douglas who achieved more in an average week than a hundred people with legs do in a lifetime, I mean, I have legs, but I've never flown a spitfire or tried several escapes from Colditz, so who the fuck am I? He can be as legless as Jerry on a night out with Gaz for all I care as long as he's a right back. This wasn't the searing analysis I was aiming for. Lets try again. 

Not replacing our loan players yet has been an issue but we may take some heart when we remember that last year, the best ones didn't sign till later on. Whether we thought we didn't need them and later decided we did, whether it's the case that sometimes you just have to wait for the players to be available or possibly that it's wise to play a few games before you know exactly what you need most, I have no idea but either way, we've got a history of bringing the better loans in later. 

If we look at our most vaunted loan players in what I'll call (to avoid mentioning certain names,) 'the post boycott era', Moore, Kirby, KDH, Ronan, Ballard, Simms, Gabriel and Embleton all signed at least several games into the season and some a lot later than that. Only Ben Heneghan was a genuine season long loan who worked out to some extent and second time round, even he wasn't there from the outset. (I can't recall when he got there first time cos I didn't give a shit about it all then) 

Established 1887:  

I'm still not quite over this one. Are we sure it happened? 

A lot could be said about the lack of established signings and it's certainly possible to imagine a world where we went out and bought 3 nailed on quality championship players and had started somewhat better than we have.  

There's a few things to look at here.

Firstly - we've shown so far that when we spend money, it's going to be on 'moneyball' type targets.

That means broadly that we'll look at:

- Young, hungry players who have performed at a lower level and deserve a chance at a higher level but won't cost much because their pedigree is lower league. 
- young hungry players who haven't made the grade at a higher level and have been released.
- players who are being misused in some way and are undervalued at their current clubs who could be better utilised in another position or system. 
- players whose value has dropped due to issues like injuries or clashes with their current club.

- players from outside the league who have the potential to step into it and are really cheap as they might be shite really even though they look grand against postmen and butchers and that.   

What we almost never do, is go and target someone in the same division who is established in the job we want them to do. We might, as fans, want that to happen, but there's very little evidence to think that's something we're likely to do. 

No, I've no idea why I'm here either? 

If we look at the signings last year, we can clearly see this in practice. Ignoring Sarkic (a signing that broke that mould as he seemed to be an established player in the division we played in with no known obvious issues) and the stopgap signing of MJ Williams who was also a League 1 regular, most of the others fit one or more of the above categories. 

- Yates was playing on the left for Swindon on loan and under appreciated by his parent club Rotherham 

- Dougall and Stewart were both discarded by their clubs due to injury. Whilst clearly being 'good enough' they'd been cast aside and were without a contract.  

- Marvin was a mid table league 2 defender. CJ a mid table league 2 winger. Both had some promise but neither were the obvious 'next big thing' 

- Keshi was also a league 2 player who had additionally apparently fallen out with Richie Wellens. 

- Maxwell had a reputation for being 'a bit dodgy' and was floating about going on loan. He was signed before Critchley, but the decision to make him a long term acquisition was Critch's

- Mitchell was a left back that couldn't defend with hardly any pedigree to speak of outside of youth team football. 

- Grettarson was a player who no one had heard of and who had little experience of playing on actual grass. He was trailed as 'an international' but the reality was he'd been capped once. 

- Embleton was a wonderkid who his own club has seemingly forgotten about after an injury. Sunderland fans I asked about him felt he was at best... 'ok' and at worst 'crocked.'

- Garbutt had a reputation for quality but a history of injury undermining his progress. He'd had lots of loan moves but never forced anyone to really make Everton an offer they couldn't refuse, probably because he kept breaking down. 

We could perhaps mention others above, but we can see the pattern. None of these signings were obvious. None of them were akin to signing say, Grant from Lincoln, Oliver from Gillingham, Piggot from Wimbledon or whoever else was playing really well for teams in and around our division.  

The signings weren't all successful, we've already mentioned Sarkic and sadly we've not seen the best of Bez Lubala who firmly fits in the 'player who achieved at a lower level' mould and is probably the most disappointing bit of business of the new era. (I'm not counting Joe Nuttall as he signed before the fancy recruitment people with their graphs and tick sheets came in.) Obviously, Embleton's efforts will ultimately benefit Sunderland and our other loan players have moved on, but I'd argue there's a real core of players in the above list that have proven our broad policy correct. If we were to sell all the players listed above tomorrow, we'd definitely recoup a lot more than we spent on them and we could easily cover whatever we spent on Bez and Sarkic for good measure. 

Worth a few quid with or without shirt

So far, whilst Garbutt hasn't shone defensively at left back, (and obviously, players like Stewart and Grettarson have been injured) only CJ really has looked like he's actively struggling with an additional leap to the Championship. Even if CJ is struggling, it's also important to remember a key fact. We got promoted. Even if someone like Hamilton isn't able to contribute this year, he's been part of achieving that key goal and thus can't be regarded as a failure overall.  

Even more moneyball? 

This year's signings follow a similar (and arguably more extreme in some cases) pattern.

It's too early to judge them all but... 

- Shayne Lavery has come from Linfield and has already shown he can more than cut it in the Championship. 

- Josh Bowler fits both the 'injury risk' model and the 'needs a bit of refinement' model and thus far is my favourite signing for about a decade I think. 

- Sonny Carey has come from non league and in the (albeit relatively unimportant) games he has played, he has not looked out of place. Whether he can force his way into a championship side is a matter for debate but he's without question a player with significant potential. He's not Ben Tollit or Ben Garrity or that kid we bought from Blyth Spartans. He doesn't look like a fish out of water, which, to a greater or lesser extent most of our more extreme punts since Brett Ormerod signed from a then very much non-league Accy have done. At worst, I think he might turn into a Curtis Tilt level player, which is to say, he looks like he's got a decent standard of football ahead of him. 

Probably better than Craig Sutherland

- Reece James is an established player from the division below and has had a rocky start to an extent but played very well against Millwall in a different position than we've seen him to date and one that isn't his best where he hasn't yet played. There's therefore some as yet untapped promise in that signing. 

- Callum Connolly also is from the division below (in terms of actual experience) as well as fitting into the 'players released from a higher level' group and as yet, hasn't had the chance to show what he can do in his natural position. That said, he's shown leadership and tenacity and as above, I think he's defended pretty well, if not always been the jigsaw piece we need overall. His willingness to do his best to play that part is to his credit.  

- Richard Keogh is supremely good at pointing and to be completely fair, he's looked ok (and perhaps better than that) when we're not playing against nippy technical front three. Surely Critch has realised now there's a time when you don't play him. He's also the player who may well be this year's stop gap and the one signing who we won't be looking to potentially make a profit from. He played too 6 month stints last year at different clubs and who is to say he won't do the same this year. With centre backs options including Marvin, Grettarson, Connolly, Casey and Husband, if Keogh plays 25 games across the season, it will mean he's playing well (or everyone is injured again) 

- It's not fair to analyse players like Casey yet but let's do it anyway. He looked decent enough in his actual position and a bit laboured at right back in the two games he's played.

- We'll have to judge Casey in time as we will the loan signing of Ryan Wintle, a player who fits the model of 'team at the same level don't rate him' so much it's almost painful. Imagine being signed and then let go again? We did that with MJ Williams who helped get Bolton promoted so it's not always the worst thing in the world. Wintle was part of the Crewe side that looked incredibly committed and knocked us of our stride at Bloomfield last year. He likes a tackle and a long pass which sounds almost exactly like what we miss when Kevin Stewart is on his bi-monthly periods of recuperation. 

But I want a WOW signing! 

It is frustrating that we don't go and sign players that immediately get the pulse racing. I still recall the jaw dropping impact of signing Tony Ellis, but then, I was pretty excited when we signed Chris Malkin too. When we look at the fact we are very rarely, if ever in the market for players that are playing at our current level, it's actually quite remarkable how many of our signings have been hits as opposed to misses. 

Wow! It's Chris Malkin! (actually, still not over this one either...)

This bodes well for our longer term future, even if it's frustrating right now. In order to progress, we can't simply rely on Sadler's largesse. I don't know how much money he has but he's seemingly prepared to put a lot of it into infrastructure. What that leaves for signings is anyone's guess but unless he's seriously rich (and some would argue, seriously stupid) then it can't be enough to just go and buy a championship team. The championship is a horrendous league in terms of finances. Whilst almost no one in the lower league makes any money, losses are generally fairly constrained. A few million here and there. An extra few hundred grand can make a big difference to a playing budget. 

The championship is not like that. To just cling on to the coat tails of the established clubs costs 7, 8, 9, 10 times the sort of average wage we've paid out over the last two seasons and to do that, whilst finding funding for a training ground, improving the infrastructure of the stadium and so on would challenge the deepest pockets. There are clubs paying players the kind of money we earn from our entire season ticket sales. We shouldn't underestimate the effort that has gone into retaining players like Yates and Maxwell on improved deals. I have no idea how much that has cost but it won't be cheap if we've done it to stave off established championship clubs. 

The costs rise and, yes, so does the income, but we're playing clubs with parachute payment riches and average gates three times our own. We all get the same TV money but others get a lot more than that on top as well and they set they going rate for an established player. 

To overcome that ,we must achieve a model similar of buy low, sell high and repeat. We must mark ourselves out as a club where players feel there is a pathway to success, where they'll get a chance to play, high quality coaching and an opportunity to progress, either with us, or via the transfer market. We haven't yet cashed in on any of our significant assets (the perennially falling over Jordan Thompson the only significant sale of the Sadler era to date) but when we do, the algorithm is fairly straight forward. If we sell one Marvin or one Jerry, then we get to seed 10 more Marvins or Jerrys. If we can maintain a record of identifying more successful players than we do complete duds, then that will eventually develop our finances to a point whereby we are looking higher up the league for the diamonds that need a little less polishing than those we have taken to date do. 

Now. 

To return to the immediate, it feels as if we do need some 'quality' - However we dress it up it seems bizarre that we don't have a right back and haven't been able to identify even a stop gap player to fill that position. It's also clear that having taken risks on players with a history of injury has left us nowhere near able to field our best XI for long periods, perhaps inevitably when we consider how our play is based on a kind of relentless, unforgiving intensity that requires players to be at top condition to successfully execute it. 

The frustration we feel with the shortcomings of the squad is perhaps enhanced when we look at the incredible spirit that there clearly is. This is a tight knit group of players. The players who've broken into it and had most impact so far show the same personal qualities as the players they've replaced and visibly share the ethos of the squad. The most exciting thing is that it doesn't feel as if we've hit the ceiling of achievement for some of the players who've been there from the beginning if we can put the right players around them. That is what makes the need for a bit of extra quality feel urgent. 

Remember this?

Neil Critchley is possibly the most dignified man in football. He may sometimes dither over a sub or two but he reflects and he learns. He's more forthright than he was, he's got braver and whilst he's not called everything right this year (Keogh against Coventry for example), he's also inspired some tremendously spirited performances. The players are more than playing for him. The players will run themselves into the ground for him. Whether or not he's able to play the way he personally wants to is unknown. We can mix and match formations anyway we like, but without a right back and with no fit taller player up front and with serious problems maintaining any sort of partnership at the heart of midfield due to injury, any manager is going to be forced to put out a side that looks like a compromise from time to time. 

What Critchley unquestionably does, is make most players better. We've listed quite a few already without mentioning Simms, Ballard, Gabriel and also without mentioning the reinvention of Grant Ward and the surprising love in between Gary Madine and the Critchley way.

The other thing he does, is relentlessly search for the right way to play. He doesn't just settle for a formation and stick to it. He might appear stubborn from any short series of games, but after he's given things a go, he'll chuck that formation in the bin and try something else. The much criticised (and frankly absurd in retrospect) experiment with Michael Nottingham is a good case study of Critchley in miniature. He's very difficult to predict, he'll try something out. He'll stick to it for longer than you or I might, but once he's decided it doesn't work, he's ruthless. I'd say that's a real strength of his. He gives mistakes time to turn into something that works because for every mistake that's doomed to fail there's also an idea that just needs patience to bear fruit. 

The counter punch to Nottingham is Grant Ward. "Why on earth (said some bloggers not a million miles from here) would you use a winger in central midfield? Why not just get a fucking central midfielder? Grant Ward is just a pretty player who doesn't really DO anything...." Yet, here we are, in a division higher than when we (ok, me) thought that, absolutely gutted because he's out for a long period and it's difficult to remember when Grant Ward was anything other than the driving metronome who keeps us ticking over. 

'We wish him well'

The end bit with some rousing words

I don't know what we're going to sign over the next few days or weeks (I say weeks, because arguably our key signings last year were free agents) but what I am 100% sure of, is that if we can plug the gaping hole at right back, pick up a bit of class on loan and get the squad something like fit as a whole, we will more than stay up.

Whoever comes in is going to be walking into a genuine culture of quality, a culture where players get better, because they believe they will get better, because they believe in what they are doing. Football might be a results business, but sometimes results mask the real work. Every great side doesn't just win. They work incredibly hard. They lead each other. They don't give up. In Yates, Dougall, Maxwell, Marvin and others, we have those leaders. We have those players who set the tone. Who give everything and accept nothing less from each other. I've recently been reading back on last year for something and it's hard to reconcile the spirit of this team with the damp squib of a side that started last year. Some of our players have grown immeasurably since then. We've learned so much. We will continue to do so.

Seeing how rapidly Ellis Simms matured from a bony kid loping about out of his depth to giving one of the all time great Pool striking performances of my life against Oxford away shows what Critchley and the culture he's fostered can do to a player's development in a short space of time. Look at Jerry picking up Shayne Lavery when he missed against Coventry. That's a player playing for his club and not just himself. Look at Jimmy hugging Grant Ward when his achilles went. That's a teammate. Look at Keshi barrelling through midfield on his own against Millwall trying to make it happen against all odds. That's what you want. Players, backing themselves. Taking risks. Look at the sheer fucking joy of watching Josh Bowler. What more do you want? Look at goal Lavery scored by sheer force of bloody will. His body on the line. What's not to love about this lot? Anyone coming in to that and playing in front of the north stand or the relentless noise of our away fans can't fail to feel they're *somewhere*

We're going to be ok. It's going to be fucking brilliant. Bit by bit, we're going to get there. We'll find a way. It's what we do. Summat about processes and trust. Blind faith innit. 

utmp

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