Rock bottom and how we got there: 12 months of transfers reviewed

January 2022 and we're doing pretty well. I don't feel as if we're going to get relegated and I'm looking forward to seeing our new signing Cameron Brannagan replacing Ryan Wintle as the lynchpin in midfield and getting some of our injured players back. We've got a pragmatic and popular coach who has done well and the club is moving forward overall.  

Anyone remember laughing at that Oxford fan on twitter posting about ponds? Bastard was right. 

February 2023 and we've had 2 managerial changes, we're bottom of the league. We never did see Brannagan or frankly, replace Ryan Wintle with anyone half convincing. The man who managed us the year before walked out on us in a weird midnight flit. We're managed by a man I don't think anyone could possibly have predicted would ever be our manager who replaced another man whose appointment appeared to be an internet prank until you checked the dates carefully and realised that it was real. 

I'm not intending to discuss either of those managers in any depth. I don't think anyone can be sure how Mick will actually do. You can guess, but you don't know. I retain a degree of sympathy for Michael Appleton but equally, it's impossible to make the case that he 'did well' in any meaningful way. 

For my main course, I will cook a big mess out of random stuff in the fridge that doesn't really go together and lacks body and bite. Yum yum. 

What I want to do is look at the structures behind them. The strategy that drives the club forward (it seems apt to note that we've also got a reverse gear given on pitch happenings at the moment) 

Lets go back to January 2022. The body warmer is on and Mike Garrity is bellowing. We're playing well. Fans are giddy types and we're hoping for a play off push by the end of the window. That's fanciful nonsense but there's a sense that we've got something we can build upon and no reason why we can't at some style to the functional championship we've shown ourselves to be. 

We sign the following: 

Owen Dale: (loan move made permanent) He initially looked like the greatest player in the world. He then didn't look like very good at all apart from playing well at Barnsley. He is now on loan in League 1. It didn't work out. He doesn't play very much for us, then goes and is quite good elsewhere.  

Jake Beesley (permanent): The big lad from Rochdale seems a lovely sort, but he's scored twice against Birmingham and done very little else other than be injured. He's too old to be a 'hot prospect' and now he's got a perfect shot at playing in a team that needs a big lad, he's once again on the treatment table.  It hasn't, thus far worked out. He hasn't played very much.

Charlie Kirk: (loan) He does ok-ish sometimes and he plays semi-regularly but doesn't really excite anyone too much. It doesn't work out and he ends up at Charlton in the end. 

We clearly decided to stick instead of twist in that January window. That's ok. We weren't going up in a month of Sundays and January is really bad in terms of value. Trust the process etc. 

Roll on summer 22 I'm on holiday as Critchley does his silent mime vanishing act. Ben Mansford is hurriedly shoved on to Tangerine TV to insist everything is ok and that we've got schroedinger's transfer budget - we both have no money but it's ok because we have plenty of money if we need it. I'm in a Northumbria pub as my better half shakes her head and says 'does the football take over everything? We're on bloody holiday...' and I say something along the lines of 'yeah, sorry, he does look flustered though... who do you think we'll get in?' (She doesn't care.)  

The board announce Michael Appleton. It's a bold move... 

We're definitely going to sign some quality. There's a lad at Sheffield Wednesday, a lad at Rotherham. A striker from Pompey and of course, Cameron Brannagan. 

We all know what happens next. It turns out a pond wins against the 1953 FA Cup winners. We don't bring in anyone that we expected to. 

If we get Gaz to do summat daft Simon, everyone will overlook the other stuff. 
Ben, I'm not sure that's how it works. 
Trust me Simon. I'm a professional... 

Instead, we sign: 

Dom Thompson (permanent) - who tries hard and is very likeable but makes a hat full of mistakes (it's quite a big hat too). It turns out Jimmy 'League One clogger' Husband is actually not bad after all. Who knew? (Me. I did. I fucking told you all) 

Callum Wright (permanent)- This one is really weird. He's seemingly another attacking midfielder in a squad is now overflowing with attacking midfielders. He plays ok once and then looks terrified of football, football kits, football boots, footballs and footballers and is sold to Plymouth where he immediately scores some goals and presumably faces up to his fears. 

Callum Wright on the bench. Actual footage from his time with us.  

Charlie Patino (loan) - He comes with a YouTube compilation and a great fanfare so he must be good. Right? He's even *actually played* in an *actual Arsenal game*. Is he a success? He scores against Preston and has a banging chant. He tries very, very hard. He has some poor games. He does ok. 

Lewis Fiorini (loan) - He looks a bit like he should be in the film of 'A Clockwork Orange' - he plays really well for 45 minutes against a QPR team in form in a really good display and then gets injured, never to be seen again. Presumably running with the droogs at the Korova Milk Bar

Lads, it's fine, I've told them I've done my hamstring. Now lets get wrecked and go on a marauding spree. 

Theo Corbeaneu (loan)- One of the weirdest players I've ever seen. He runs at oblique shifting angles. He scores some goals. He gets dressed down on the pitch by his teammates quite regularly because he doesn't seem to understand the difference between 'a kickabout where you can take the piss running about in circles' and 'actual football where it matters what you do.' He gets sent back to Wolves. 

I know it's wrong, but I sort of miss Theo. 

Rhys Williams (loan)- He's big and gangling. He looks at first like a kid who plays a different sport being asked to join in because the football team is short of numbers. He gets a bit better as time goes on. He goes back in January apparently to bolster their numbers, a fact which makes me laugh out loud when my Liverpool mate tells me this. 

Ian Poveda (loan)- He's not actually called Ian because he's a mad Columbian combination of the musician Prince and a pimp who also happens to have the skills of Maradona and the timekeeping and general work ethic of a stoner at Woodstock festival. He's both brilliant and seemingly unpickable. The latter point somewhat defeats the point of the loan. We love him, but we're denied him. He's like some long distance affair, brief passionate liaisons that feel like an illicit thrill, before he vanishes into the night evading the authorities always on his tail... Poveda! 

I actually made this. What is my life? I'm fucking 43 years old. Have word with yourself for encouraging this sort of thing. 

Summer turns to autumn and we play quite well in some games, even brilliantly in short flashes but terribly for long spells in others. We supplement the squad with free agent signings: 

Grant Ward (free agent) - This is a climb down for everyone. Michael Appleton has publicly stated he doesn't want Grant Ward to play in his midfield. He likely wants Grant Ward to play right back even less. Guess what happens? Ward is a player we owe a debt to so it's sad that his final games are two horrible right back displays where it looks like a) he isn't a right back and b) he hasn't played football for 14 months. The fact both of which things are true, doesn't stop people declaring him 'shite' which he isn't and is unfair. 

Liam Bridcutt (free agent) This one is a punt. It's like buying a fancy car in the paper that's much cheaper than it should be. You know the head gasket is probably blown or it's a cut and shut, but you just can't resist. Bridcutt might as well be at one of those market stalls where they sell broken biscuits and stuff that's past its sell by date. We sign him anyway. He has a couple of good games and then gets injured. He reminds us of Kevin Stewart in a good way. He also reminds us of Kevin Stewart in a bad way. 

October comes and goes and our form goes from inconsistent to what can very fairly described as awful. January 23 cannot come quick enough and replacements are needed. 

The first half of the window is all about serving Appleton's (now somewhat unpopular to say the least) idea of a fluent 433 and so, we sign... 

Josh Bowler (loan) - this one took a lot of scouting and effort. Seen as he'd played for us until September and could legally only play for us, you have to hand it to the scouting team for scouring the globe and coming up with this one. He weirdly has a spell as a central midfielder for no reason anyone on earth can fathom, before scoring on his home return from right wing. 

Morgan Rogers  (loan)- Like Bridcutt, this has 'Mike getting the gang back together' all over it. He looks pretty good. Like a souped up CJ Hamilton with sponges on his feet to cushion that classic CJ first touch. He doesn't start though, which leaves a distinct impression that he's not yet fit. 

Tommy Trybull (permanent) - Who? Oh, ok, he played for Norwich and Blackburn. I'll pretend I knew that. His YouTube compilation is pleasingly brutal, full of him clattering in with well timed and full blooded challenges. He looks just the man to replace Kevin and Liam in being our midfield enforcer. He shows up, looks quite crisp and neat, makes a few tackles and then limps off. For the love of god.

Simon, the game didn't say anything about 'injuredness' How were we to know? 

Charlie Goode (loan) - I swear he's a cash in hand hod carrier my auntie once went out with that my mum used to tut about. Mind you, if he is, that would make him about 60 so it's probably not the case. He's big, he's bearded, he looks like he's been bought solely so that Mick has someone who can knock Gaz out if required. Guess what happens next? Yep. He gets injured. 

Curtis Nelson (permanent)- Mick's mate from Cardiff. He looks a bit rough in one game, kind of ok in the other and you'll never ever guess what happens next. Yes, he misses his third start with an injury. It turns out you guessed right. 

Andy Lyons (permanent) - I saved him till last as he's actually proved (so far) to be really good. He looks feisty and clever, scores a lovely goal and we finally have two actual right backs at the club (Simon Sadler telling us we did anyway, didn't make it true) and both of them are decent. 

Now it's now and the window is shut and we've got the squad we've got. I promised not to analyse managers but it's inevitable that a bit of discussion of their styles and how the players fit that is needed. 

Michael Appleton wanted to play a more possession based style than Neil Critchley, whose success was built on a solid back 6 and quick breaks. Losing Fiorini was a blow, but the fact we never snared a dominant midfielder to shield the defence and let the likes of Patino and Carey have a more free role was an absolute disaster. Bridcutt briefly looked like he could be that man, but the odds of him staying fit were such that it was like assuming you'd won the lottery when you saw you'd got the first number right. The loans were, for varying reasons, mostly a disaster. We ended up with a disjointed, leaderless squad and crucially, lacked width up front which meant we had to rely on Gary 'battered snowplough stuck in first gear' Madine up front on his own with Yates and Lavery masquerading as wide men. 

January came and Trybull, Bowler and Rogers seemed to address those key weaknesses. The board seemed to have dug in and finally backed the manager except it turned out that they hadn't. Mike went and Mick arrived. The squad now looked just about ready to do what Appleton wanted it to do - with Poveda on fire and enough technical ability to imagine Yates dancing about onto through balls and playing one twos. Next second he was gone. I'm not trying to argue he should have stayed, I'm just setting the scene for what comes next and the sheer table cloth pulling surprise of it all.  

Big Mick likes big lads. He takes one look at Ian chipping the keeper at Southampton, Josh not touching the ball at Boro and Patino doing those little shimmies where he looks really good, but could have just passed it first time and thinks 'where the hell am I?' and reaches for his contacts book. 'Get me anyone over 6ft 2 - TC, make us a brew and tell us a joke, bloody hell, it's like bloody land of the midgets here, what's them lads in that Chocolate factory book? Oompa Oompas? Is that what they'called. Never mind. I tell what, them novelists, they think of all sorts don't they. Them anyway. I've got a bloody squad of them. Tell you what TC, we should have had a look first before leaping into this. Bring us a digestive will you?' 

We can clearly see that providing the two managers we've had with the right players has been a challenge. My theory (based on nothing in particular) would be that Critchley actually knitted a lot of the vaunted 'backroom process' together. He was nothing if not diligent. I have it on good authority* that he watched games almost constantly when not 'on the grass' or admiring his fabreze scented polo shirt collection in his neatly arranged wardrobes in his neatly arranged house with his neatly tidy car neatly parked on his drive surrounded by the neat lawn on a neat cul-de-sac in the neat little estate where he and Jannine live. 

*i.e. someone said it to me once. 

When we look at the 18 players we've signed, we can analyse it in a number of ways: 

5 players (Kirk, Dale, Bridcutt, Rogers and Nelson) were likely a product of the manager knowing them from previous jobs. 
2 players (Ward and Bowler) were known to the club already. 

That means 11 of them are the product of some kind of scouting process. 

2 of them come from somewhere outside of the English league (Lyons and Trybull) 
The remaining players come from either the reserves or u23s of a Premier League side aside from Beesley who came from Rochdale. 

It's hard to look at the names above and see anyone who has really impacted our season in the way we hoped new players would. Lyons looks like he could be a success. Patino has shouldered a heavy load and done it with admirable effort, but he's not really been the difference maker we dreamt of. Bowler is Bowler and we had him already. Rogers looks handy. Nelson, it's impossible to judge. Trybull, we can only hope isn't Bridcutt mark 2. 

The key problem for me this season hasn't actually been our manager or players. It's that we're now (if we count Critchley) 3 managers on from last January and our key players are still the same ones as they were in August 22 (or even in the League 1 promotion season) - We're still reliant on Husband, Dougall, Thorniley, Yates, Madine, Ekpiteta, Maxwell, aided by Bowler, Connolly, Lavery, Carey and so on. Again, I'm not arguing any manager this year has been a football genius - I'm just suggesting that they've not really been helped by the circumstances. 

These players above have a lot going for them, but they're now playing their third different style of football in less than 10 months. Some of these players we felt might struggle with the step up from the league below when it came and yet, here they still are and how much they've run and fought in that time since. They've really not been well served by the choice of many of their new teammates or the 90 degree switches in footballing philosophy

It's madness to suggest we should be paying out the same fees and wages as the clubs in this league who are at the top, but I don't think it's madness to suggest we really could and should have made the money we have work a bit harder. What I find curious is that we've seemingly completely abandoned scouring the lower leagues for talent. Only Beesley came to us via this route whereas Ekpiteta, Anderson, Yates (sort of) and Carey all came from lowly clubs or reputations built in the lower leagues. Where are the 25 year olds hungry to prove they're good enough? We also seemed to completely miss the boat with signing anyone released over summer - the year before, we picked up a slew of talent this way (Grimshaw, Connoly, Bowler for example) and whilst Wright and Thompson did come from the Premier League, both were still in contract with their parent clubs. No one came in with the sting of rejection motivating them to show the error of the decision to release them... 

It was almost as if Critchley legged it with the plan in his back pocket. I might post the picture of Ben with 'turmoil' written on him again... 

The players we've signed who haven't worked aren't necessarily bad players. Some of them are probably very good players, but we've never looked like we're making a jigsaw, more that we're laying crazy paving out of bits of stuff we can find. We've had some dreadful luck with injuries with both extant and new squad members, but there has come points when the strategy of 'kids + older players who are cheap and we must cross our fingers and toes that their bodies will hold up' has left the kids high and dry which in turn, means those kids lose confidence and things get worse still. In a similar vein, we rightly bemoaned the loss of Keogh, but the attempt to play football with no defensive midfield I would argue left our defenders with a kind of football shell shock, so unused were they to being the first and last line of defence and that declining confidence manifested itself in panic, red cards and gaffes. In turn, the players we'd perhaps hoped to flip for money to fund new players have declined in value as simply put, people don't want to shell out multi-millions for players who were good six or twelve months ago but aren't any more... 

Oh, so grim. 

The good news is this. The only way is up. (technically, it's not but just run with it for the sake of hope for fucks sake!) - McCarthy might not be your cup of Yorkshire tea, but he will give clear messages. We might not look very good right now, but the effort is there and the players are gamely trying to carry out what he's asking them to do. A plan is always better than no plan and a plan that people buy into is more important than a plan that looks good, but people can't follow. Mick's plan isn't subtle and perhaps that's what a team low on confidence needs. We can only hope.

It's the hope that kills you. 

We've also revamped the recruitment team. It's quite difficult to work out if they've had much impact or not as yet, but Coventry (where they came from) have been a side who play lovely football on a small budget for quite some time and have had some remarkably good players in recent years. If Mick is all about staying up, I suspect the signings we've made are all about the immediate context and not future planning. The duel swoop for a known quality in this area would suggest the club are well aware of what I'll kindly describe as the 'deficits in our recruitment over a period of time.' Others may use their own descriptions.  

It's to be hoped that summer (when we've secured our status in the league obviously) is about giving us a coherent identity and that there's a list of literally hundreds of targets being monitored right now. The squad has been desperate for evolution and summer, (regardless of the division we're in) will bring a revolution akin to that of Sadler's first season and that needs more than Mansford's mates and some lads the manager knows to be successful. We've blown the opportunity to evolve and therefore this is where we are. 

We're not going down though. Cos we're better than that. 

Onwards. 

 

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