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| A bit good |
Part 1 of this possibly not to ever be repeated exercise in dullness concerns the attack. The conclusion from it is inescapable. We aren't very good at attacking unless we play 2 upfront, we don't dribble very much, we miss CJ and even an out of sorts Sullay is more creative than most of the other players. The defensive stats should make better reading though, as even without looking at them, it's obvious that we've built quite a solid team. I was critical of the midfield and the lack of penetration it offers in part 1, but the converse of this, is it protects what is already a pretty useful defence and a decent keeper pretty well.
So. Strap yourself in number fans and let's take a look at Pool's defensive qualities from the first half of the season.
Stats refer to league games only and divisional positions are correct prior to games played on Sat 13th February
433: P11 W3 D1 L7 G7 A18 (pts 10 (0.91ppg)
other: P3 W1 D1 L1 G3 A4 (pts 4 (1.33ppg)
As you can see - we've conceded 0.7 goals per game playing 4-4-2 and 1.57 goals per game playing other systems. This suggests to some extent, attack is a good form of defence...
We've got the 8th best defensive record in the league having conceded 26 goals. That stat requires a small caveat, that we've played the joint least games in the league and we drop to 9th best in terms of goals conceded per game
This suggests only part of the picture. If we factor in all players (including those who've played a small number of games) we see a very different story:
Michael Nottingham (Blackpool appearances only) 6.7 (7th)
If we factor in the players with just a few appearances, surprisingly Elliot Embleton has the highest tackles per game ratio of all of our squad, with Kevin Stewart also edging out Kenny Dougall.
I don't have any especially detailed stats on goalkeeping. Chris Maxwell has the 4th lowest ratio of saves per game in the division but that needs to be understood against the stat that we conceded the 4th lowest number of shots per game and it's clearly unreasonable to expect a keeper to save efforts that aren't coming at him!
General analysis of his play suggests his distribution is strong. He's in the top 15% of keepers for accurate long balls. In the previous piece, I explained we actually don't play about at the back that much in comparison to others. Therefore it makes sense that Maxwell is in the bottom half for overall number of short passes. His ration of accurate to inaccurate passes is good and he hasn't been dispossessed or racked up any 'unsuccessful touches' to date.
There's little surprising here. So much so, that I wonder why I've even bothered writing it. Marvin has clearly been a key factor in our defensive solidity and Ballard, Gretarsson and latterly Thorniley have all complimented him in different ways. Unsurprisingly the stats indicate Garbutt could add something in an attacking sense but they also suggest that Husband isn't without his merits as a defensive full back either. Gabriel vs Turton is a similar story. Essentially, nothing the stats tells us really contradicts the view of our own eyes. In a similar vein, discovering Dougall's clear influence is no surprise (as isn't the fact Stewart has shown himself capable of similar figures) The question isn't 'can we win the ball?' - it's 'what can we do when we win it?'
4-4-2 is not just about scoring goals.
442: P10 W6 D2 L2 G18 A7 (Pts 20) (2ppg)433: P11 W3 D1 L7 G7 A18 (pts 10 (0.91ppg)
other: P3 W1 D1 L1 G3 A4 (pts 4 (1.33ppg)
As you can see - we've conceded 0.7 goals per game playing 4-4-2 and 1.57 goals per game playing other systems. This suggests to some extent, attack is a good form of defence...
Team Stats
We've got the 8th best defensive record in the league having conceded 26 goals. That stat requires a small caveat, that we've played the joint least games in the league and we drop to 9th best in terms of goals conceded per game
How do we concede goals?
We're very good at defending against the counter attack, having conceded no goals in this manner.
We've got the 11th best record against set pieces in the division (7 goals conceded)
We're the 6th best defence in open play (15 goals conceded)
We've conceded 3 penalties (which makes us joint 13th in this metric, however only 3 sides have conceded more)
We've also scored 1 own goal (11 sides have none, 3 sides have more including Portsmouth who've scored an incredible 4!)
We're very good at stopping crosses. We face an average of 16 pg which makes us 3rd best in the league at shutting down attacks from wide.
Interestingly, we've faced the second highest number of long balls (an average of 81 per game) - I'm not sure what this stat means but I wonder if it's because our midfield is quite combative and difficult to play through so teams don't bother trying?
In terms of stopping opponents, we've faced the 9th least short passes which does add a little weight to the idea that teams don't try work through our pressing in midfield so much as go over the top of it. Perhaps the work of someone like Jerry Yates also prevents teams from passing at the back (though as we'll see later, our forwards have unremarkable records in winning possession for themselves)
We also spend the joint least time per game (25%) in our own third of the pitch which basically means, we defend less than everyone else in the division.
We've got the 11th best record against set pieces in the division (7 goals conceded)
We're the 6th best defence in open play (15 goals conceded)
We've conceded 3 penalties (which makes us joint 13th in this metric, however only 3 sides have conceded more)
We've also scored 1 own goal (11 sides have none, 3 sides have more including Portsmouth who've scored an incredible 4!)
How do we get attacked?
We're very good at stopping crosses. We face an average of 16 pg which makes us 3rd best in the league at shutting down attacks from wide.
Interestingly, we've faced the second highest number of long balls (an average of 81 per game) - I'm not sure what this stat means but I wonder if it's because our midfield is quite combative and difficult to play through so teams don't bother trying?
In terms of stopping opponents, we've faced the 9th least short passes which does add a little weight to the idea that teams don't try work through our pressing in midfield so much as go over the top of it. Perhaps the work of someone like Jerry Yates also prevents teams from passing at the back (though as we'll see later, our forwards have unremarkable records in winning possession for themselves)
We also spend the joint least time per game (25%) in our own third of the pitch which basically means, we defend less than everyone else in the division.
With the above in mind, it also makes sense that we concede the 4th least number of shots in the division (9.7 p/g)
We make the 10th most tackles per game (we'll look below at who and where the tacklers are)
We're also 10th in terms of interceptions per game.
We've got the 2nd best defence in terms of not being dribbled past
We foul slightly more than we're fouled (12.8 vs 13.7) and have the 11th highest number of fouls conceded in the division (for balance, we're the 10th most fouled against side)
Our record in aerial duels puts us 9th best in terms of winning them (note, this stat is rated as an 'offensive' stat but appears to include all kinds of aerial duels, not just those that happen in the offensive third)
So, who is contributing to our relative defensive stability? I'll analyse the work of individual defenders and the midfield whilst also look where relevant at how the work rate all over the pitch plays a part.
We do look like quite a big side when we've got everyone fit now. Below we show who are the dominant players in the air and their rank against all the players in the division who have played a qualifying number of games.
Gary Madine 5.5 (7th)
How do we defend?
We make the 10th most tackles per game (we'll look below at who and where the tacklers are)
We're also 10th in terms of interceptions per game.
We've got the 2nd best defence in terms of not being dribbled past
We foul slightly more than we're fouled (12.8 vs 13.7) and have the 11th highest number of fouls conceded in the division (for balance, we're the 10th most fouled against side)
Our record in aerial duels puts us 9th best in terms of winning them (note, this stat is rated as an 'offensive' stat but appears to include all kinds of aerial duels, not just those that happen in the offensive third)
Individual defensive performances:
So, who is contributing to our relative defensive stability? I'll analyse the work of individual defenders and the midfield whilst also look where relevant at how the work rate all over the pitch plays a part.
Individuals: Aerial duels:
We do look like quite a big side when we've got everyone fit now. Below we show who are the dominant players in the air and their rank against all the players in the division who have played a qualifying number of games.
Gary Madine 5.5 (7th)
Marvin Ekpiteta 4.1 (30th)
Ollie Turton 1.6 (126th)
Ollie Turton 1.6 (126th)
This suggests only part of the picture. If we factor in all players (including those who've played a small number of games) we see a very different story:
Michael Nottingham (Blackpool appearances only) 6.7 (7th)
Jordan Thorniley 6.1 (9th)
Gary Madine 5.5 (18th)
Dan Ballard 5.3 (25th)
Marvin Ekpiteta 4.1 (54th)
Daniel Gettarsson 3.9 (67th)
Daniel Gettarsson 3.9 (67th)
This wider cohort of players illustrates how Dan Ballard gives us much more aerial presence and somewhat surprisingly counters the belief that Jordan Thorniley is weak in the air because of his relatively petite build.
The result won't surprise anyone...
Kenny Dougall: 3.2 (3rd)
Ethan Robson: 1.6 (66th)
Ollie Turton: 1.4 (100th)
Individuals: tackles.
The result won't surprise anyone...
Kenny Dougall: 3.2 (3rd)
Ethan Robson: 1.6 (66th)
Ollie Turton: 1.4 (100th)
If we factor in the players with just a few appearances, surprisingly Elliot Embleton has the highest tackles per game ratio of all of our squad, with Kevin Stewart also edging out Kenny Dougall.
Individuals: Interceptions
Ethan Robson: 1.6 (30th)
Marvin Ekpiteta: 1.3 (50th)
Ollie Turton 1.3 (59th)
Ollie Turton 1.3 (59th)
Kenny Dougall 1.3 (62nd)
James Husband 1.1 (98th)
Adding in the players with fewer appearances again reveals some interesting stats. Daniel Gretarsson is praised for his positioning and the stats back this up. His record of 3.1 interceptions per game is by a long way the best record in the squad and by a fair margin the best in the division of any player in any position. Dan Ballard also excels here, with 2.1 per game and again, Jordan Thorniley comes out well as the third best interceptor in the squad with 1.7 per game.
Adding in the players with fewer appearances again reveals some interesting stats. Daniel Gretarsson is praised for his positioning and the stats back this up. His record of 3.1 interceptions per game is by a long way the best record in the squad and by a fair margin the best in the division of any player in any position. Dan Ballard also excels here, with 2.1 per game and again, Jordan Thorniley comes out well as the third best interceptor in the squad with 1.7 per game.
Individuals versus dribbling
Who are our best players when the opposition run at us?
This is a difficult stat to work out, as obviously, some players face less dribbles than others... (hence, Super Gaz winning this one, is a bit of pyrrhic victory for him as he only attempts half a tackle per game...)
Gary Madine: 0.1 (42nd)
Gary Madine: 0.1 (42nd)
Marvin Ekpiteta: 0.1 (54th)
Keshi Andersson: 0.1 (68th)
Keshi Andersson: 0.1 (68th)
James Husband: 0.2 (91st)
Jimmy Husband may seem unimpressive at 91st but he is the best left back (who has played the requisite number of games) in the division at stopping players going past him. Ollie Turton comes in 4th of all right backs using the same metrics.
Which of our players get beaten most often? The answer is a surprising one... Kenny Dougall! (beaten 1.1. times per game, probably a result of him being one of the highest players in the division in terms of attempted tackles - you can't be 'beaten' if you aren't in the tackle after all...)
Again, we need to take the players rankings with a pinch of salt as we've already established we don't concede many shots. So, whilst that means we don't need to black as much as other teams, it's still interesting to see who our best blockers are...
Marvin Ekiteta 0.8 (21st)
Ollie Turton 0.6 (49th)
Of the players with fewer appearances, Jordan Thorniley (1 per game) outshines even Marvin whilst Dan Ballard (0.8) has a similar record.
Obviously, these are stats we have to caveat by pointing out players who takes risks offensively will come higher in these stats than others who play it safe...
Amount of times dispossessed per game:
CJ Hamilton: 2.6 (8th)
Jimmy Husband may seem unimpressive at 91st but he is the best left back (who has played the requisite number of games) in the division at stopping players going past him. Ollie Turton comes in 4th of all right backs using the same metrics.
Which of our players get beaten most often? The answer is a surprising one... Kenny Dougall! (beaten 1.1. times per game, probably a result of him being one of the highest players in the division in terms of attempted tackles - you can't be 'beaten' if you aren't in the tackle after all...)
Individual players blocking:
Again, we need to take the players rankings with a pinch of salt as we've already established we don't concede many shots. So, whilst that means we don't need to black as much as other teams, it's still interesting to see who our best blockers are...
Marvin Ekiteta 0.8 (21st)
Ollie Turton 0.6 (49th)
Of the players with fewer appearances, Jordan Thorniley (1 per game) outshines even Marvin whilst Dan Ballard (0.8) has a similar record.
Who loses the ball when we have possession?
Obviously, these are stats we have to caveat by pointing out players who takes risks offensively will come higher in these stats than others who play it safe...
Amount of times dispossessed per game:
CJ Hamilton: 2.6 (8th)
Keshi Anderson 1.7 (35th)
Sullay Kaikai 1.6 (38th)
Bez Luballa 1.6 (39th)
Jerry Yates (42nd)
When analysing our defenders alone, Mitchell (in defence) then Gabriel, then Garbutt are the most likely to get tackled (probably as they are more likely to attack than Turton and Husband). Ballard and Grettarson almost never get dispossessed and Marvin is one of only three defenders in the division to never get dispossessed in the season to date.
Unsuccessful touches per game:
CJ Hamilton: 3.2 (4th)
Jerry Yates 2.3 (27th)
When analysing our defenders alone, Mitchell (in defence) then Gabriel, then Garbutt are the most likely to get tackled (probably as they are more likely to attack than Turton and Husband). Ballard and Grettarson almost never get dispossessed and Marvin is one of only three defenders in the division to never get dispossessed in the season to date.
Unsuccessful touches per game:
CJ Hamilton: 3.2 (4th)
Jerry Yates 2.3 (27th)
Gary Madine 2.1 (30th)
Keshi Anderson 1.9 (55th)
Analysing by position is interesting. Keshi has the highest ratio of unsuccessful touches per gameof any central midfielder in the division when playing in central midfield. Defensively speaking, Mitchell again, then Garbutt again are most likely to make an 'unsuccessful touch' whereas Ballard, then Ekpiteta, then Husband are the least likely to do so.
Again, this doesn't necessarily indicate that the unsuccessful touches equate to defensive liability, possibly more indicating the way some players get forward more, though in Mitchell's case his performances at full back were somewhat sketchy!
To analyse this, I filtered various attacking positions and looked at successful tackles made by player of all teams who had played more than 10 games in the positions identified.
Keshi Anderson 1.9 (55th)
Analysing by position is interesting. Keshi has the highest ratio of unsuccessful touches per gameof any central midfielder in the division when playing in central midfield. Defensively speaking, Mitchell again, then Garbutt again are most likely to make an 'unsuccessful touch' whereas Ballard, then Ekpiteta, then Husband are the least likely to do so.
Again, this doesn't necessarily indicate that the unsuccessful touches equate to defensive liability, possibly more indicating the way some players get forward more, though in Mitchell's case his performances at full back were somewhat sketchy!
Defending from the front?
To analyse this, I filtered various attacking positions and looked at successful tackles made by player of all teams who had played more than 10 games in the positions identified.
Yates is 18/32 strikers in terms of tackles and Madine is 24/32.
Sullay is bottom (6/6) in terms of left sided attacking players making tackles.
Sullay is bottom (6/6) in terms of left sided attacking players making tackles.
CJ is 6/10 in terms of right sided attacking players making successful tackles but significantly more successful in the tackle than any other out and out attacker in our squad.
Stats for interceptions were similar, though Sullay faired a little better here, being 4/6 instead of rank bottom.
Key passes per game by defenders (starting games only)
Jordan Gabriel 1.6 (mostly short passes)
Luke Garbutt 1.4 (equal mix between long and short)
Stats for interceptions were similar, though Sullay faired a little better here, being 4/6 instead of rank bottom.
Which of our defenders uses the ball best when we have it?
Key passes per game by defenders (starting games only)
Jordan Gabriel 1.6 (mostly short passes)
Luke Garbutt 1.4 (equal mix between long and short)
Demi Mitchell 0.9
Accurate long balls per game by defenders (starting games only)
Accurate long balls per game by defenders (starting games only)
Jordan Thorniley 6.0
Michael Nottingham 4.7
Dan Ballard 4.3
Dan Gretarsson 4.0
Crosses per game by defenders (starting games only)
Luke Garbut 8.1 (2.3 accurate, 5.8 inaccurate)
Jordan Gabriel 2.9 (0.6 accurate, 2.3 inaccurate)
Ollie Turton 2.8 (0.4 accurate, 2.4 inaccurate)
Goalkeeping:
I don't have any especially detailed stats on goalkeeping. Chris Maxwell has the 4th lowest ratio of saves per game in the division but that needs to be understood against the stat that we conceded the 4th lowest number of shots per game and it's clearly unreasonable to expect a keeper to save efforts that aren't coming at him!
General analysis of his play suggests his distribution is strong. He's in the top 15% of keepers for accurate long balls. In the previous piece, I explained we actually don't play about at the back that much in comparison to others. Therefore it makes sense that Maxwell is in the bottom half for overall number of short passes. His ration of accurate to inaccurate passes is good and he hasn't been dispossessed or racked up any 'unsuccessful touches' to date.
Conclusions:
There's little surprising here. So much so, that I wonder why I've even bothered writing it. Marvin has clearly been a key factor in our defensive solidity and Ballard, Gretarsson and latterly Thorniley have all complimented him in different ways. Unsurprisingly the stats indicate Garbutt could add something in an attacking sense but they also suggest that Husband isn't without his merits as a defensive full back either. Gabriel vs Turton is a similar story. Essentially, nothing the stats tells us really contradicts the view of our own eyes. In a similar vein, discovering Dougall's clear influence is no surprise (as isn't the fact Stewart has shown himself capable of similar figures) The question isn't 'can we win the ball?' - it's 'what can we do when we win it?'
Parts 1 and 2 together tell the story of the season to date. A solid platform has been built but to date we haven't launched enough rockets from it. Of the players we haven't utilised so much, Mitchell and particularly Garbutt have a clear capacity to add some things we lack (running/crosses) though Demi's propensity for giving the ball away is probably why we don't see more of him. On the other flank Gabriel has an ability to make key passes missing from the squad as a whole and I identified in part 1 the fact that Ward has been more productive on the wing in his earlier career.
Basically. Thank fuck the stats thing is done. Sunderland* next.
*Eagle eyes readers will note it's actually Rochdale and we don't play Sunderland for ages yet. Dunno why I thought it was them...
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