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| Big Gaz and CJ missing - 'nuff said... (save yourself from reading the rest of the article) |
Regular readers of the blog will be aware that rather than offering analysis I usually offer metaphors and say unkind things about the use of stats so this is quite hard for me to write. My defence for rank hypocrisy is, that I don't think stats are useless - I just think they're over used in the modern era by journalists.
I always like reading a report that describes the game, rather than one that reduces it to a spreadsheet. I like a report that evokes an image in your mind, and with the greatest of respect to a scatter graph, they don't give you much sense of the noise of the crowd, the weather lashing down or the manner and gait of the players, the character and feeling of the game. Individual games are human events, stats are more helpful to look at the trends that emerge over a series of such events. To me, the way we sometimes use stats in football is to tell us what we can see with our own eyes.
Looking at a single game doesn't tell us so much. For example, Rob Apter has an assist for every 2 mins of football he's played this year and 100% crossing and passing ratio. I think Rob Apter is a talented prospect but I don't think he's likely to be providing 45 goals every game across the course of his career. Elliot Embleton did at best ok-ish in the Ipswich game but his total of 3 'key passes' is almost double the average of anyone else in the squad. Again, whilst Embleton showed a little bit, I don't think he really looked twice as innovative as anyone else who stepped on the pitch for us this year.
I think, as we've crossed the half way mark, it might be fair to have a little think about what we have and haven't (defined objectively by external data) actually done in the season. We all have opinions (I bloody love Sullay - on the balance of opinions on social media, you probably don't) about who is and isn't any good and whilst stats only tell us certain things, I think there might be something to be said for stepping back and looking deeply at our side.
Our problem this year has largely been attacking (I actually finished my pre season preview with the words 'we'll score one more than you!' which shows what I know...) so that's what I'm going to look at. I don't have any special stats to hand. Until readers aggressively demand the ability to hand over money in return for even more over written shite I'm not subscribing to ProZone or owt, so I'm just using my trusty regular approach of 5 minutes of Googling and the (seemingly reliable) stats from a betting site as a source. (EFL League 1 games only)
Key issue
If you don't buy a ticket...
Are we shooting enough? The answer seems to be 'maybe' - it's not so much the quantity of shots, but the quality thereof. We're actually 7th in terms of shots per game which suggests we're either not hitting barn doors or we're shooting from positions that don't generally lead to goals.In terms of barn doors and banjos, our position drops to 18th in terms of shots on target which tells a story.
We can break down the shots we do have and compare how those percentages sit against the rest of the division (though that doesn't reveal the totals for each type of effort)
Inside the six yard box: 6% (19th)
Inside the penalty area: 57% (6th)
Outside the box: 38%: (12th)
This suggests we're not simply belting it hopelessly from miles away, but we're not putting it on a plate as much as some other teams, that our strikers lack as high a percentages of chances for close range finishes compared to many other teams and also that we're not finishing from medium distance especially well either.
This suggests we're not simply belting it hopelessly from miles away, but we're not putting it on a plate as much as some other teams, that our strikers lack as high a percentages of chances for close range finishes compared to many other teams and also that we're not finishing from medium distance especially well either.
How do we score when we do score?
We're the joint best counter attackers in the league (even though we don't score many.) Set pieces have been derided as 'abysmal' but we're actually distinctly mid table (13th) in terms of converting these. We're really poor (19th) at scoring from open play.This backs up the generally held perception that our ideal game is one where we can play on the break and that we struggle to make the running. The one hammering we've dished out was against Wigan who since losing Joe Garner have tried to play football more than they did with him and without question it's sides who play a bit that we play better against.
We can look at where the goals come from, but with so few scored overall, it's not that instructive. We're not great at corners or free kicks, but in terms of direct assists, no one in the league is! We've slated the dead balls, but we've got a grand total of 1 goal each from corners or free kicks. That actually puts us joint 12th and joint 6th in the division! (Only Swindon have more than 2 assists from corners!) We don't score many from out wide, with our 5 assists leaving us 18th in the league for this stat.
Rather than looking at how we score, it's perhaps more interesting to look at how we don't score...
How do we attack in general?
Here's an interesting stat. We started the season playing pass and move football but we've actually now reached 7th in terms of 'long balls per game' compared to 13th when measuring short passes per game. We play so few through balls that we're joint bottom of this metric...We're quite balanced in terms of how we attack
35% left sided attacks
25% through the middle
40% right sided attacks
It would be interesting to see a 'pre CJ injury' comparison though as we seem to currently work a bit better down the left.
The next stat is really interesting and tells a story about the way we play.
We have 33% of all our touches in attacking situations (final third of the pitch). This is the 3rd highest ratio in the division. Despite the sense that we 'piss about at the back' we actually have the 2nd lowest number of touches in our own third in the league! (i.e - statistically we fanny about less than other teams or possibly have to defend less)
This suggests we get the ball forward often enough, but it's the quality of what happens in the final third that matters.
In the air, it's not bad at all. With Madine in the team (who is in the top 10 of all players and top 3 of strikers for aerial battles) it's no surprise we're in the top half, sitting 10th in terms of attacking aerial duels won. That said, neither Ellis Simms (1.7) or Jerry Yates 1.3) come close to Madine's 5.5 duels won per game so we're quite dependant on one player for this strength.
A stat that is quite revealing here though, is we are 22nd in terms of successful dribbles per game - Add in failed dribbles and we rise to the grand heights of 20th - which suggests it's not so much we're bad at dribbling but we don't try running at defenders as much as other teams.
We can see we have the ball in the right place quite often - in fact, seemingly more than other teams, but we're either taking more touches than they do or simply not risking taking on a man or playing a through ball. Notably, we're right at the top (or bottom?) in terms of the number of unsuccessful attacking touches (6th highest) and amount of times we're dispossessed (3rd highest) in attacking situations.
Again, this seems to suggest we're not attacking as decisively as others...
Those are the key team stats - but what do the individual stats tell us?
The next stat is really interesting and tells a story about the way we play.
We have 33% of all our touches in attacking situations (final third of the pitch). This is the 3rd highest ratio in the division. Despite the sense that we 'piss about at the back' we actually have the 2nd lowest number of touches in our own third in the league! (i.e - statistically we fanny about less than other teams or possibly have to defend less)
This suggests we get the ball forward often enough, but it's the quality of what happens in the final third that matters.
In the air, it's not bad at all. With Madine in the team (who is in the top 10 of all players and top 3 of strikers for aerial battles) it's no surprise we're in the top half, sitting 10th in terms of attacking aerial duels won. That said, neither Ellis Simms (1.7) or Jerry Yates 1.3) come close to Madine's 5.5 duels won per game so we're quite dependant on one player for this strength.
A stat that is quite revealing here though, is we are 22nd in terms of successful dribbles per game - Add in failed dribbles and we rise to the grand heights of 20th - which suggests it's not so much we're bad at dribbling but we don't try running at defenders as much as other teams.
We can see we have the ball in the right place quite often - in fact, seemingly more than other teams, but we're either taking more touches than they do or simply not risking taking on a man or playing a through ball. Notably, we're right at the top (or bottom?) in terms of the number of unsuccessful attacking touches (6th highest) and amount of times we're dispossessed (3rd highest) in attacking situations.
Again, this seems to suggest we're not attacking as decisively as others...
Those are the key team stats - but what do the individual stats tell us?
Individual attackers: Goals:
Jerry has 8. CJ has 5 and wor Gaz 4. This is the crux of the issue. Ellis Simms brace against Wigan is promising but no one else really looks like scoring with any regularity. Add Sullay, Robson, Dougall, Williams, Ward, Bez and all the other players who've played midfield together and you get 6 goals. It's tempting to *blame the strikers* but actually, what sticks out is that midfielders like Ollie Finney at Crewe (7) and Alex Pritchard (6) at Accy have outscored our entire midfield other than CJ (and don't forget, CJ has played on the right of a front three and Sullay on the left for a good chunk of their games/goals as opposed to in midfield)Goals from midfield is a big issue.
Individual attackers: Shots
So, we're seeing play in the right places and we are shooting more than we're scoring. Stats here show the number of shots per game and the position against the other 331 players in the divisional database who have played a minimum number of games.
CJ Hamilton 2.4 (10th)
Gary Madine 2.1 (21st)
Sullay Kaikai 1.8 (44th)
Jerry Yates 1.7 (55th)
This tells us that Jerry is deadly, CJ and big Gaz like to have a go, Sullay is at least on the fringes of the party. But what of the rest of the front 6? (or 7 depending on how we play...)
Unsuprisingly Demi and Bez appear in the top 100, given as they tend to come on, run about and lash at least one wild shot towards goal. Keshi is there as well given his propensity to do similar. All three average about 1.3 shots and sit between 80-100 (and all three tend have played wide at some point)
When we look further at the players who've played solely in the middle, it's interesting reading.
Kenny Dougall 0.7 (174)
Grant Ward 0.6 (206)
Ethan Robson 0.6 (218)
Matty Virtue doesn't qualify for the main list but has an almost identical record to Kenny Dougall from the games he's played.
What's interesting is these 4 midfielders are only a fraction higher than Marvin (0.5) and actually averaging less efforts on goal per game than Jordan Thorniley!
It seems clear to me - it's not just goals from central midfield that are lacking - unless Keshi is playing there, we're simply not shooting from the middle of the pitch very often. To be fair to Virtue, he hasn't really played in the middle much but it's perhaps insightful that a player renowned for having a decent shot on him, simply isn't having shots. Why?
CJ Hamilton 2.4 (10th)
Gary Madine 2.1 (21st)
Sullay Kaikai 1.8 (44th)
Jerry Yates 1.7 (55th)
This tells us that Jerry is deadly, CJ and big Gaz like to have a go, Sullay is at least on the fringes of the party. But what of the rest of the front 6? (or 7 depending on how we play...)
Unsuprisingly Demi and Bez appear in the top 100, given as they tend to come on, run about and lash at least one wild shot towards goal. Keshi is there as well given his propensity to do similar. All three average about 1.3 shots and sit between 80-100 (and all three tend have played wide at some point)
When we look further at the players who've played solely in the middle, it's interesting reading.
Kenny Dougall 0.7 (174)
Grant Ward 0.6 (206)
Ethan Robson 0.6 (218)
Matty Virtue doesn't qualify for the main list but has an almost identical record to Kenny Dougall from the games he's played.
What's interesting is these 4 midfielders are only a fraction higher than Marvin (0.5) and actually averaging less efforts on goal per game than Jordan Thorniley!
It seems clear to me - it's not just goals from central midfield that are lacking - unless Keshi is playing there, we're simply not shooting from the middle of the pitch very often. To be fair to Virtue, he hasn't really played in the middle much but it's perhaps insightful that a player renowned for having a decent shot on him, simply isn't having shots. Why?
Individuals: Assists
Who is creating the goals we do score?Sullay 3
CJ 3
Yates 2
Marvin 2
Marvin 2
Maxwell, Husband, Ward, Apter, Madine, Turton 1
Again, we can perhaps make a case that the wide players are doing a bit of a job but we certainly can't point to the central midfield. We've managed a SINGLE (Grant Ward) assist from here all season.
Put it this way. Dougall, Anderson, Robson, Williams, Stewart and Virtue combined have zero assists. George Honeyman has 9, Connor Grant 7, Aaron Morley 6, Joe Powell 5, Joe Pritchard 5...
Again, we can perhaps make a case that the wide players are doing a bit of a job but we certainly can't point to the central midfield. We've managed a SINGLE (Grant Ward) assist from here all season.
Put it this way. Dougall, Anderson, Robson, Williams, Stewart and Virtue combined have zero assists. George Honeyman has 9, Connor Grant 7, Aaron Morley 6, Joe Powell 5, Joe Pritchard 5...
Individuals dribbling:
We've seen above that we don't run at defences enough - so who is not running at the defence? Stats here show successful dribbles per game and the position that puts the play against other players in the division who've played a qualifying number of games.CJ Hamilton: 1.2 (15th)
Demi Mitchell: 0.7 (68th)
Jerry Yates: 0.5 (97th)
Keshi Anderson 0.5 (106)
What surprises me here when I look beyond the first four is Sullay coming in at 136th! (below Kenny Dougall!) - A left winger that doesn't dribble... Maybe he's not left winger? Just a thought. Last year when not playing as a left winger Sullay averaged 1.5 successful runs per game. This year, it's just 0.4...
Keshi Anderson 0.5 (106)
What surprises me here when I look beyond the first four is Sullay coming in at 136th! (below Kenny Dougall!) - A left winger that doesn't dribble... Maybe he's not left winger? Just a thought. Last year when not playing as a left winger Sullay averaged 1.5 successful runs per game. This year, it's just 0.4...
Individuals passing:
If we're not running at teams very much (and aside from CJ, we're demonstrably not, then we're going to have to pass around then)Here we'll look at key passes per game (and position against other qualifying players:)
CJ Hamilton: 1.6 (17th)
Sullay Kaikai 1.4 (34th)
Gary Madine 1.1 (58th)
Gary Madine 1.1 (58th)
Jerry Yates 0.9 (96th)
Again we lack impact from central midfield. Dougall, Robson and Ward come in at 136, 140 and 216 respectively. Ward and Robson rate 31st and 51st for accuracy but clearly that accuracy isn't leading to impact. I've long maintained that Sullay is better at passing than he gets credit for and the Goal Machine is actually a creative fulcrum. The stats bare that out.
The stat I mentioned at the beginning is interesting - if you add in Elliot Embleton's one game to the stats, he produced 3 key passes, which, if he continues to do that, could have an impact on our midfield.
Again we lack impact from central midfield. Dougall, Robson and Ward come in at 136, 140 and 216 respectively. Ward and Robson rate 31st and 51st for accuracy but clearly that accuracy isn't leading to impact. I've long maintained that Sullay is better at passing than he gets credit for and the Goal Machine is actually a creative fulcrum. The stats bare that out.
The stat I mentioned at the beginning is interesting - if you add in Elliot Embleton's one game to the stats, he produced 3 key passes, which, if he continues to do that, could have an impact on our midfield.
Individuals crossing:
The stats below represent successful crosses aloneSullay Kaikai 1.6 (11th)
Grant Ward 0.7 (57th)
CJ Hamilton 0.6 (62nd)
Ollie Turton 0.4 (94th)
If we add in the players who havn't reached the minumum number of appearences, then there's some hope here. Luke Garbutt has 1.4 per game (21st in the division from all players) and Embleton managed 2 in his debut (which would put him 5th!) Essentially, there's only Sullay consistently done any decent crossing for most of the season.
Ollie Turton 0.4 (94th)
If we add in the players who havn't reached the minumum number of appearences, then there's some hope here. Luke Garbutt has 1.4 per game (21st in the division from all players) and Embleton managed 2 in his debut (which would put him 5th!) Essentially, there's only Sullay consistently done any decent crossing for most of the season.
Individuals playing through balls
100 players in the division have played whatever it is exactly that the stats class as a 'through ball.' Only one of them is a Blackpool player.Sullay Kaikai is the only player in the squad to played a through ball... in the entire season! Charlie Kirk of Crewe has played 14 through balls all by himself (as well as assisting Crewe's goal against us)
When we look at the attributes (born out by the stats) of the forwards who are not Gary Madine, it's evident that they probably need a player who can play this kind of pass....
How do we compare to last year?
We're particularly poor at dribbling and key passes is an issue. - Liam Feeney made more key passes per game last year than anyone is managing so far this year and is doing even better this season with Tranmere. Connor Ronan actually out performed even Feeney in this respect last season and would be second in the dribbling tables this season as well! Obviously KDH's goals from midfield are a miss and this year he seems to have added dribbling to his game with Luton completing more per match than anyone including CJ. As frustrating as Fonz was, he has managed more successful runs per game last year than anyone but CJ has this season.Obviously, crosses are a problem, especially from the right. Feeney out performed just about everyone in football last year, so it it's perhaps not a surprise to see the numbers dip this year, but going from 2.3 per game to 0.7 is quite a big drop. You can of course, make the point that we play a different way now, but equally, the stats suggest that Madine in the air is one aspect where we have a real advantage over other teams. What is interesting is Ronan, Dewsbury Hall, Jordan Thompson and even Marc Bola all averaged more successful crosses per game than our second best crosser (CJ) this year. It's also interesting to see that Sullay wasn't really crossing it very often at all last season (he's attempting about 5 crosses per game this season - last year it was about 2.8 - in line with the rest of his career.)
I'm not making a case for the players above (though personally, I'd have loved to have seen more of Ronan) - it's just an interesting comparison on our relative attacking merits season on season and the fact (Feeney aside) the standout players in these areas are largely the loan players tells a story about last season's squad. Impishly, you do have to wonder if 'wish we'd put a recall clause in for Feeney' is crossing anyone's mind as Tranmere seem to score 3 every week...
Conclusion:
It's inescapable that we've got a creative issue. For all the stick Sullay gets, he's there or thereabouts in terms of contributing in an attacking sense in most of the charts. That's not to say there isn't issues with aspects of his game, but he's not the reason we're not scoring goals this year. Yes, he might contribute more and yes, he doesn't look right and no, I've not mentioned anything about defensive work but take out Sullay and CJ and there's literally no one doing some of the things you need to do to put pressure on the other teams goal.
Our central midfield hasn't contributed assists or goals. It doesn't shoot, it doesn't play through balls and it doesn't get on to the end of things in the box. We're currently playing the one player of the 5 we have who does the latter too things well wide on the right which is odd as he shares just about no attributes with CJ or any wide man I can bring to mind.
Marvin Ekpiteta has been involved in twice as many goals than the 3 midfielders who have started most games for us. That tells a story. There's nothing wrong with having players who do the simple things well, wining the ball and retaining possession but you've also got to have other players who'll find the through ball or take on a man. Without CJ, no one else aside from Sullay even looks as if they try these things.
We're also much more direct team than it appears. With Madine in the side, we've got one of the best target men we could have. He not only wins the ball, but often uses it very well. Without Madine, we have two strikers who don't especially suit a direct style of play and we're back to the lack of key passes and through balls.
We're also not putting in convincing crosses from one side of the pitch - something exacerbated by the lack of CJ (who might not cross so much or so well, but does other things that compensate for that) - Grant Ward is a possible answer there as he's relatively quick, reasonably skillful, can cross and has played on the wing and isn't Matty Virtue.
Lastly, here's an interesting statistical point:
According to the database we've got the following record with starting formations:
442: P10 W6 D2 L2 G18 A7 (Pts 20) (2ppg)
433: P11 W3 D1 L7 G7 A18 (pts 10 (0.91ppg)
other: P3 W1 D1 L1 G3 A4 (pts 4 (1.33ppg)
Aside from the obvious improvement in results, the ratio of goals per game in the respective formations is a stark illustration of how impotent we look with one striker and maybe illustrates how hamstrung we've been by the start of the season.
The above isn't my usual style of writing and I don't intend to start punctuating my usual reports with XG stats (we're actually 6th if you're wondering and 21st in XGa - which Is why I can't really be arsed with it as that suggests we should be right up there) but I found it interesting reading looking through this and trying to get to the bottom of the question 'why do we look so toothless sometimes?'
It's interesting to look at some of the players and analyse whether it's them who lack creativity or it's the way we're playing. Grant Ward for example is making less key passes and dribbling less (up to 3 times less) than in any season he's ever had in professional football aside from his first with us. Dougall is actually slightly out performing himself in previous seasons. Robson hasn't played enough before to make a meaningful comparison. Virtue is definitely shooting less than last year.
Will the new signings make any difference? Stewart has had one season average more than a shot per game and 2 assists and 3 goals from 85 matches. Embleton has barely had a career yet and again, there's little to compare his encouraging (statistically speaking) start with.
What about the midfield players left out? Demi does make runs and Bez does shoot. There's that. The problem is, from the stats at least, even an out of sorts Sullay out performs both of them and they'd both suit the left sided berth most obviously (though Demi arguably is the only player with the pace to attempt a CJ impression on the right)
In short... unless he's going to give Rob Apter a go and try and see if he actually can set one up every 2 minutes, we need Super Gaz fit. Quick. Evidently, his prowess in the air (and CJ's pace on the right) are absolutely fundamental to our chances of scoring goals. What the stats don't definitely reveal is whether the pace of our play is the issue. I've felt all year that we're sometimes guilty of being ponderous going forward and taking too many touches, not risking the quick ball or instinctive touch. Is that down to the players fundamental caution or the experimentation with different formations and changing line ups meaning they're not becoming fluent? Is it actually true?
Who can say?!
Fear not. Super Gaz will head us to promotion... maybe.
Who can say?!
Fear not. Super Gaz will head us to promotion... maybe.
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