The season is more done than David Dunn on a Dun Horse in Dungannon. Thoughts inevitably turn to next year and whilst I'm not a noted transfer guru with a six figure salary in demand at league clubs across the land, I was quite good at Football Manager back in the days when it was called Championship Manager and I therefore reckon I've got something to offer in terms of high level analysis of what we've got and what we need.
The key point looking towards next season is that we need quite a lot. There's no 'if we can add a bit of quality' about this summer because there's loads of players leaving and a few players who we will probably want to leave and that leaves not a lot left over.
Lets eschew the usual rambling intro and get straight into it. We're going to look at each position and make a conclusion on the work we need to do:
Goalkeeper:
Harry Tryer has improved a lot in his time here. I like him. I think he has the ability to improve further. I would sign him if we can because I think he'd be a decent keeper now and excellent asset for the future.
If we don't sign him, we desperately need someone else. Richard O'Donnell has an option on his contract I think, but that's a bit like saying 'it's ok, we've still got Bloomfield Bear' cos realistically, O'Donnell is great for the vibes and being a team player and all of that - but he's not in any sane world a keeper to be relying on in any league 1 side, let alone one pushing for promotion.
Mackenzie Chapman only exists so he and Ryan Finnegan can tell each other who they are in case they forget their own names such is the mystery around their purpose.
Conclusion: We need a keeper desperately - ideally two with one of at least Tyrer's ability or better and another to push them.
Right back:
Odel Offiah has been close to being the player of the season. He's absolute quality and the only question I really have is whether he's over reliant on his pace to tidy up mistakes and whether that's something that will be exposed at a higher level. He's definitely ready for Championship football and he won't be here next year as much as we all would like him to be.
Remember Jordan Gabriel? He was really good back in the day. Ask your dad, he might tell you about him. He used to be like an attacker and a defender in one and he was probably going to be the next big sale and go to one of those earthy mid rank clubs like West Brom or Stoke or whoever (I think it was Burnley he was linked with if we're being 100% accurate) and be a Championship stalwart. Then he got repeatedly injured and since then, he's been a bit of a faded photocopy of himself. That might be unfair, but it seems weird seeing him reduced to being a last 15 minute sub, mostly used when the game is dead. I'd love Gabes to stay and be the all action hero he was previously, but a) I'm not sure how he is physically and whether he can still be that player and b) I'm not sure he'll be up for staying when surely, he could get a shot at regular starting berth elsewhere and I wouldn't begrudge him that if we're not going to give him that chance.
Remember Andy Lyons? He was also like an attacker and a defender in one and he'd played Champions League and everything. In the dark days of Big Mick, Andy Lyons gave us hope... then, injury struck. The Lyons we lost was a really good prospect - he wasn't perfect defensively, but in a side such as we've been of late, (as opposed to the measured Critchball which he didn't seem to suit as well) it feels as if he'd really prosper - but again, whether he comes back the same player is an unknown:
Conclusion: At best we have two right backs who, if they're both at it and can get back to their best (and Gabriel stays) make it a rare area in which we look relatively strong - furthermore, being relatively similar players, we should be able to interchange them and protect them to an extent - but it's a huge unknown as to whether either is the player they were at their best and a case of me hoping rather than relying on any particular recent evidence.
Left back
If you could combine Coulson and Husband, you'd have an excellent player. Jimmy's legs are looking increasingly tired but he's a good defender and a great competitor with a decent football brain, even if his execution of the idea in his mind when he goes for a sweeping Baresi-esque ball isn't always as he pictures it. Coulson legs are pretty quick, and he's capable of some great forward runs and has looked excellent going forward in tandem with Sonny Carey - but he's suspect defensively and sometimes looks flimsy and out of position against a physical team on the attack.
Conclusion: If we're going to play with a back four, I'm not convinced that either of the options nail down a starting berth. Both of them are 'ok' in their own way but is either of them the complete player? I'd keep them both, but possibly it's only because there's more glaring holes that I'm not thinking we need more there.
Lets eschew the usual rambling intro and get straight into it. We're going to look at each position and make a conclusion on the work we need to do:
Goalkeeper:
Harry Tryer has improved a lot in his time here. I like him. I think he has the ability to improve further. I would sign him if we can because I think he'd be a decent keeper now and excellent asset for the future.
If we don't sign him, we desperately need someone else. Richard O'Donnell has an option on his contract I think, but that's a bit like saying 'it's ok, we've still got Bloomfield Bear' cos realistically, O'Donnell is great for the vibes and being a team player and all of that - but he's not in any sane world a keeper to be relying on in any league 1 side, let alone one pushing for promotion.
Mackenzie Chapman only exists so he and Ryan Finnegan can tell each other who they are in case they forget their own names such is the mystery around their purpose.
Conclusion: We need a keeper desperately - ideally two with one of at least Tyrer's ability or better and another to push them.
Right back:
Odel Offiah has been close to being the player of the season. He's absolute quality and the only question I really have is whether he's over reliant on his pace to tidy up mistakes and whether that's something that will be exposed at a higher level. He's definitely ready for Championship football and he won't be here next year as much as we all would like him to be.
Remember Jordan Gabriel? He was really good back in the day. Ask your dad, he might tell you about him. He used to be like an attacker and a defender in one and he was probably going to be the next big sale and go to one of those earthy mid rank clubs like West Brom or Stoke or whoever (I think it was Burnley he was linked with if we're being 100% accurate) and be a Championship stalwart. Then he got repeatedly injured and since then, he's been a bit of a faded photocopy of himself. That might be unfair, but it seems weird seeing him reduced to being a last 15 minute sub, mostly used when the game is dead. I'd love Gabes to stay and be the all action hero he was previously, but a) I'm not sure how he is physically and whether he can still be that player and b) I'm not sure he'll be up for staying when surely, he could get a shot at regular starting berth elsewhere and I wouldn't begrudge him that if we're not going to give him that chance.
Remember Andy Lyons? He was also like an attacker and a defender in one and he'd played Champions League and everything. In the dark days of Big Mick, Andy Lyons gave us hope... then, injury struck. The Lyons we lost was a really good prospect - he wasn't perfect defensively, but in a side such as we've been of late, (as opposed to the measured Critchball which he didn't seem to suit as well) it feels as if he'd really prosper - but again, whether he comes back the same player is an unknown:
Conclusion: At best we have two right backs who, if they're both at it and can get back to their best (and Gabriel stays) make it a rare area in which we look relatively strong - furthermore, being relatively similar players, we should be able to interchange them and protect them to an extent - but it's a huge unknown as to whether either is the player they were at their best and a case of me hoping rather than relying on any particular recent evidence.
Left back
If you could combine Coulson and Husband, you'd have an excellent player. Jimmy's legs are looking increasingly tired but he's a good defender and a great competitor with a decent football brain, even if his execution of the idea in his mind when he goes for a sweeping Baresi-esque ball isn't always as he pictures it. Coulson legs are pretty quick, and he's capable of some great forward runs and has looked excellent going forward in tandem with Sonny Carey - but he's suspect defensively and sometimes looks flimsy and out of position against a physical team on the attack.
Conclusion: If we're going to play with a back four, I'm not convinced that either of the options nail down a starting berth. Both of them are 'ok' in their own way but is either of them the complete player? I'd keep them both, but possibly it's only because there's more glaring holes that I'm not thinking we need more there.
Centre backs
Ollie Casey is a foundational piece of our rebuild. He's been really good this year. He reminds me a little bit of Peter Clarke when Peter Clarke was really good. He's just steady and he's got stronger and no longer gets bullied. He can play, but he doesn't mess about, seems unruffled by whoever partners him and Bruce obviously adores him. I really hope we don't sell him as he's the first of our own players in this list I'd unreservedly describe as 'good enough to be in a promotion winning team'
Elkan Baggot is an odd one - his loan spell hasn't gone brilliantly if we're honest. He's looked pretty good but he's only started 12 games and picked up a lot of knocks and not always been favoured when fit. I'm not sure he'd desperately want to come back even if we could get him as he's not really nailed down a place despite his obvious attributes.
Conclusion: Squad options are Pennington and the aforementioned Husband. They're both 'fine' as back up players but I'm not sure we'd want either as the first choice partner to Casey. Husband's versatility and ability to get off the bench and immediately up to speed is useful, Penno's grit and knowhow are admirable but when we consider the last time we went up we had Grettarson and Thorniley playing second fiddle to Ekpiteta and Ballard with Jimmy as additional cover, the need for at very least one more quality player is clear.
(Note: Zac Ashworth exists, but I'd literally forgotten about him and had to edit him in later, so I'm not sure he really counts other than to be (incredibly) less memorable to me than either Ryan Finnegan or Mackenzie Chapman)
Right Midfield
We play with wingers. We have two decent right wingers. Robbie Apter is a yard of pace from being absolutely devastating and it's that yard of pace that keeps him with us and not already on the shopping list of clubs with TV money and youngster's careers to ruin. I like him a lot, I like his willingness to always attack and his trickiness and his ability to play an impossible pass from a hopeless position is underrated.
Tom Bloxham is also, I think primarily a right winger at this point. No one really seems to know what he's best at yet. He's looked both excellent and completely lost up front in different games so I'm not sure if he's a full time centre forward option. I mainly hope he's not going to suffer like Danny Coid did from being so technically able that he could play about 4 positions and therefore being a defacto utility man to cover the gaps from a thin squad.
Conclusion: Two of our most exciting players can play this role. It would be interesting to see what else Rob Apter can do and whether he could sometimes move to let Bloxham play there and if we could get them both on the pitch, that could create some very interesting options regarding our ability to pose different problems at different points in a game. The potential fluidity and variety of Bloxham, Apter and Carey on the same pitch able to dip in and out of differing roles and swap places is actually quite frightening (and frustratingly, might not be an option...)
Ollie Casey is a foundational piece of our rebuild. He's been really good this year. He reminds me a little bit of Peter Clarke when Peter Clarke was really good. He's just steady and he's got stronger and no longer gets bullied. He can play, but he doesn't mess about, seems unruffled by whoever partners him and Bruce obviously adores him. I really hope we don't sell him as he's the first of our own players in this list I'd unreservedly describe as 'good enough to be in a promotion winning team'
Elkan Baggot is an odd one - his loan spell hasn't gone brilliantly if we're honest. He's looked pretty good but he's only started 12 games and picked up a lot of knocks and not always been favoured when fit. I'm not sure he'd desperately want to come back even if we could get him as he's not really nailed down a place despite his obvious attributes.
Conclusion: Squad options are Pennington and the aforementioned Husband. They're both 'fine' as back up players but I'm not sure we'd want either as the first choice partner to Casey. Husband's versatility and ability to get off the bench and immediately up to speed is useful, Penno's grit and knowhow are admirable but when we consider the last time we went up we had Grettarson and Thorniley playing second fiddle to Ekpiteta and Ballard with Jimmy as additional cover, the need for at very least one more quality player is clear.
(Note: Zac Ashworth exists, but I'd literally forgotten about him and had to edit him in later, so I'm not sure he really counts other than to be (incredibly) less memorable to me than either Ryan Finnegan or Mackenzie Chapman)
Right Midfield
We play with wingers. We have two decent right wingers. Robbie Apter is a yard of pace from being absolutely devastating and it's that yard of pace that keeps him with us and not already on the shopping list of clubs with TV money and youngster's careers to ruin. I like him a lot, I like his willingness to always attack and his trickiness and his ability to play an impossible pass from a hopeless position is underrated.
Tom Bloxham is also, I think primarily a right winger at this point. No one really seems to know what he's best at yet. He's looked both excellent and completely lost up front in different games so I'm not sure if he's a full time centre forward option. I mainly hope he's not going to suffer like Danny Coid did from being so technically able that he could play about 4 positions and therefore being a defacto utility man to cover the gaps from a thin squad.
Conclusion: Two of our most exciting players can play this role. It would be interesting to see what else Rob Apter can do and whether he could sometimes move to let Bloxham play there and if we could get them both on the pitch, that could create some very interesting options regarding our ability to pose different problems at different points in a game. The potential fluidity and variety of Bloxham, Apter and Carey on the same pitch able to dip in and out of differing roles and swap places is actually quite frightening (and frustratingly, might not be an option...)
Left Midfield:
Sonny Carey has been our best player in the last few months. Whether by accident or design, he's been slotted into a kind of inside/outside left hybrid role that suits him down to the ground and his perpetual movement and willingness to drive forward and chance his arm keeps oppositions honest. Sonny is proactive in finding space (what people also call 'disappearing') and that's something Bruce has harnessed.
Whether Sonny stays, I have no idea but clearly I want him too. I think he should - I think he's a player who is better again than he knows he is and another season of being trusted with the role he has, by a manager who clearly 'gets' him would give him enough experience in his limbs to properly realise his potential. Confidence is physical as well as mental. It comes from success becoming a muscle memory because the mind and the body are one - and he needs to weigh up whether elsewhere he gets the role he does here, under the type of manager he's got now.
Sammy Silvera is basically a Temu Ian Poveda. He's not really had the impact we wanted (like Poveda) but unlike Poveda, he's not really had the occasional moments of magic (that Forest cup game... wow!) that keeps you believing in him. He's just a bit 'forgettable'. He's reactive, not proactive. I might be misjudging him and to be fair, he's not had a great deal of time to get to the rhythm of the team, but (particularly January) loans should improve you from the outset otherwise, why bother with them and he's just really been 'a body' as opposed to being someone you'd think 'I hope we go for him'
CJ. What can be said? He's CJ. He'll be here forever, always toe punting the ball forward and legging it after it and a little bit of you will always say 'go on Ceej' and once in a blue moon, he actually will go on Ceej and that will make you think he might do it the next time but there'll be 100 miscontrol or toe bungs into the stands or looking a bit lost in between those moments and he'll be ffs Ceej then but then the next moment will come around and repeat. His pace is always an asset to a squad and will always suit a particular game or scenario, but we can't make him plan A. To do so would be madness.
Conclusion: There's a lot of ifs in this position but I think we probably need an additional left sided midfielder and if Carey goes, the need becomes desperate because we lose a player whose goals per minute this season is up there with our strikers and who plays a particular role for us that is quite 'bespoke'
Central Midfield.
The need for a central midfielder (or 2 or even 3) is already evident. We have Albie Morgan, who I really like and I think is an excellent player but who has carried a huge load this season. We also have Lee Evans who, when on his game, is also an excellent player. We've also (sort of) got Sonny who comes inside and makes it a 3 at times. It's easy to be frustrated with the fact we've just lost a game (at the time of writing) because we've been out battled in midfield - but the simple fact is, with the other two options being Ryan Finnegan and Josh Onomah, who don't even get a spot on the bench when Evans is literally vomiting before kick off, then we're palpably short of midfield options. At best, we've got three players - one of which has had a life changing health diagnosis (that he's coped with incredibly well), the other has come back from a career threatening injury and started more games than he's EVER played before in his entire career and the other one is playing on the left wing and if we play him in central midfield, we create a gap elsewhere.
Central midfield is where control of games is won and lost. The success of a player like Coulson depends on the grip we have on the game. When we're in control, Coulson looks good, as he's better putting pressure on than soaking it up. Central midfield shields the defence - Casey has been excellent, Offiah has been great, and as much as we've had a few howlers, no one defensively has been making error after error after error, yet we're pretty porous - why? I'd argue that running two central midfielders into the ground with no back up at all will end up with a defence under pressure and a defence under pressure will eventually yield. The way we play requires intensity in this area. The very nature of playing with two in midfield (usually against a three) requires legs and having no fresh legs at all to replace some very tired ones is an explanation in itself. The squad has not supported the style so to speak.
Conclusion: If Onamah gets a contract, then I'm going to demand a contract because frankly, why not? Ryan Finnegan must surely go and play football somewhere next year for the sake of his career and it won't be here because if he's ever going to show he can play at this level, he needs to show something somewhere over a period of time elsewhere. Evans and particularly Morgan I'm happy to keep, but we can't run them into the ground like we have done - We desperately need two quality midfield options and some athletic and physical presence. Morgan has ended up becoming the legs for an off song Evans of late and I don't think that serves either of them as well as it could if someone else could be the engine for either of them.
Strikers:
There ain't nobody better than Super Ashley Fletcher is in danger of being a literal chant because with Bees surely on his way, Ennis out the door and Bloxham possibly being on the wing, we might only have him.
The big lad has been a revelation and 19 goals and assists in 30 starts is impressive enough, but when you reflect on how poor he was up till somewhere around Christmas, that figure is doubly remarkable. He makes stuff happen. He's a bit like CJ in that he'll cock stuff up, but he's found his inner Armand and learned just to have another go till it happens. I think with the right partner, he could have a really good season next year.
The question is, will Niall Ennis be the man? I'm not sure. He's on Championship wages and he's got a year to go on his contract and Ryan Lowe at Wigan fancies him, Plymouth may well want a look at him and who knows if Steve Schumacher might also want a look. We definitely need that sort of player though, someone who can nag and hurry defenders up and run the channels. I'd like him.
Strikers:
There ain't nobody better than Super Ashley Fletcher is in danger of being a literal chant because with Bees surely on his way, Ennis out the door and Bloxham possibly being on the wing, we might only have him.
The big lad has been a revelation and 19 goals and assists in 30 starts is impressive enough, but when you reflect on how poor he was up till somewhere around Christmas, that figure is doubly remarkable. He makes stuff happen. He's a bit like CJ in that he'll cock stuff up, but he's found his inner Armand and learned just to have another go till it happens. I think with the right partner, he could have a really good season next year.
The question is, will Niall Ennis be the man? I'm not sure. He's on Championship wages and he's got a year to go on his contract and Ryan Lowe at Wigan fancies him, Plymouth may well want a look at him and who knows if Steve Schumacher might also want a look. We definitely need that sort of player though, someone who can nag and hurry defenders up and run the channels. I'd like him.
Conclusion: With Bloxham an option and Fletcher reborn and perhaps the rawness of Bondo maturing a bit further, there's something to work with, but we probably need at least two more up front and we're crying out for hard runners with pace to play off Fletcher.
Overall:
There's a huge amount to do. It's maybe a couple of years too late as when we went down initially, we tried to rebuild things with what we had and that proved an uninspired recipe. Then, the next season, we built a team for a manager we sacked 2 games in. This year, we've got something we haven't had a for a good while - a manager in situ who seems popular with the players and is definitely popular with the fans. There's no getting away from the fact the rebuild is needed - it's literally not an option to do anything else but we can obviously attack the task with relish or do it half heartedly.
It's unlikely we're going to have anyone with the level of connections and reputation in the game that Steve Bruce has in the near or midterm future. For better or worse, he seems to have an excellent relationship with David Downes. There should, therefore, be no confusion or miscommunication about what the manager wants. To use the awful phrase, we should be 'aligned' - We should also have a bit of a warchest in the form of the Kyle Joseph money, which was an unexpected and generous windfall. If we want, we can see this as a chance to speculate to accumulate, we really should be framing this summer as an opportunity to create the next set of assets for the club. The page has well and truly closed on the Covid era side which was built with some ambition and decisive spending but there's not a huge amount of value left in this squad compared to the potential value of that side at its peak.
The motto on the club badge and town crest is 'progress' but the few seasons have felt like a combination of 'regression' and 'stasis' - neither of which are particularly inspiring - however, whilst this season has been frustrating, there's been some of the former on the pitch and we've found a manager who has brought some unity to proceedings and improved some of the key players, Casey and Carey have had their best spells in tangerine, Morgan literally leads the league in assists, Fletcher's career nosedive has been arrested and has gone from a laughing stock to a proper player with as much direct impact as almost anyone in the division, Apter has established himself at League 1 level with the first hat trick by an academy graduate in the league since Paul Stewart to his name, Tyrer and Offiah have grown their career prospects no end and so on.
Bruce has worked with a squad that was assembled for another manager. Our key players have played more minutes than anyone else in the division (of the 90 players with most minutes on the pitch, 7 of them are ours - we've got more players than any other team in the league in that cohort) and still, we've seen some really good football and some dominant performances by the team and by individuals.
We now need to take the learning from this year and apply it to the market with some aggression. Less is more has worked to a degree as some of those players above have really benefited from the trust and consistency of playing every week - but we can't go up with just 11 or 12 players truly suited to the task - which is where we've been at this year - we need greater depth in quality but we also need to plug a lot of holes in the starting line up.
This is probably the biggest summer we've had since Sadler's appointment of Critchley and the rebuild we had then.
The challenge is very clear.
Let's hope we're up to it.
Onward
Overall:
There's a huge amount to do. It's maybe a couple of years too late as when we went down initially, we tried to rebuild things with what we had and that proved an uninspired recipe. Then, the next season, we built a team for a manager we sacked 2 games in. This year, we've got something we haven't had a for a good while - a manager in situ who seems popular with the players and is definitely popular with the fans. There's no getting away from the fact the rebuild is needed - it's literally not an option to do anything else but we can obviously attack the task with relish or do it half heartedly.
It's unlikely we're going to have anyone with the level of connections and reputation in the game that Steve Bruce has in the near or midterm future. For better or worse, he seems to have an excellent relationship with David Downes. There should, therefore, be no confusion or miscommunication about what the manager wants. To use the awful phrase, we should be 'aligned' - We should also have a bit of a warchest in the form of the Kyle Joseph money, which was an unexpected and generous windfall. If we want, we can see this as a chance to speculate to accumulate, we really should be framing this summer as an opportunity to create the next set of assets for the club. The page has well and truly closed on the Covid era side which was built with some ambition and decisive spending but there's not a huge amount of value left in this squad compared to the potential value of that side at its peak.
The motto on the club badge and town crest is 'progress' but the few seasons have felt like a combination of 'regression' and 'stasis' - neither of which are particularly inspiring - however, whilst this season has been frustrating, there's been some of the former on the pitch and we've found a manager who has brought some unity to proceedings and improved some of the key players, Casey and Carey have had their best spells in tangerine, Morgan literally leads the league in assists, Fletcher's career nosedive has been arrested and has gone from a laughing stock to a proper player with as much direct impact as almost anyone in the division, Apter has established himself at League 1 level with the first hat trick by an academy graduate in the league since Paul Stewart to his name, Tyrer and Offiah have grown their career prospects no end and so on.
Bruce has worked with a squad that was assembled for another manager. Our key players have played more minutes than anyone else in the division (of the 90 players with most minutes on the pitch, 7 of them are ours - we've got more players than any other team in the league in that cohort) and still, we've seen some really good football and some dominant performances by the team and by individuals.
We now need to take the learning from this year and apply it to the market with some aggression. Less is more has worked to a degree as some of those players above have really benefited from the trust and consistency of playing every week - but we can't go up with just 11 or 12 players truly suited to the task - which is where we've been at this year - we need greater depth in quality but we also need to plug a lot of holes in the starting line up.
This is probably the biggest summer we've had since Sadler's appointment of Critchley and the rebuild we had then.
The challenge is very clear.
Let's hope we're up to it.
Onward
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